Fentanyl’s pipeline into the U.S. could also be drying up : NPR


A U.S. Customs and Border Protection agent checks pedestrians' documentation at the San Ysidro Port of Entry in San Ysidro, California.  A growing number of experts believe the flow of deadly street fentanyl from Mexico into the U.S. has been disrupted, contributing to a drop in fatal overdoses.

A U.S. Customs and Border Safety agent checks pedestrians’ documentation on the San Ysidro Port of Entry in San Ysidro, California. A rising variety of specialists imagine the move of lethal road fentanyl from Mexico into the U.S. has been disrupted, contributing to a drop in deadly overdoses.

Sandy Huffaker/AFP/Getty Pictures


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Sandy Huffaker/AFP/Getty Pictures

This summer time, Dan Ciccarone, a doctor and road drug researcher on the College of California, San Francisco, despatched a staff to assemble information on the town’s streets in areas the place illicit fentanyl has been a killer for years. They discovered one thing sudden.

“The fentanyl provide is drying up for some cause,” Ciccarone mentioned. “Hang around on the streets, speak to folks — the medication are exhausting to search out and dearer.”

When road fentanyl started spreading within the American road drug provide starting in 2012, most specialists believed the lethal artificial opioid was unstoppable. Fentanyl is affordable, simple to make and massively worthwhile. The black market provide chain that feeds U.S. demand for the drug is operated by a few of the most refined and ruthless legal gangs on this planet.

However Ciccarone mentioned that over the previous six months, he started listening to from road drug specialists across the U.S. who additionally had been seeing considerably much less fentanyl and fewer overdoses.

“I head from Ohio, I heard from West Virginia, and I heard from Maryland and Arizona, and so they’re all telling me the identical factor: some type of provide scarcity on the road,” he mentioned.

There are skeptics, individuals who query this pattern, however a few of the high drug coverage analysts within the U.S., in addition to specialists with shut ties to road fentanyl markets, imagine the info exhibits a serious disruption within the lethal fentanyl provide chain.

“It is a growth that many drug coverage specialists wouldn’t have imagined,” mentioned Vanda Felbab-Brown on the Brookings Establishment, who research worldwide legal organizations that make and smuggle fentanyl.

She mentioned drug gangs seem like trafficking much less fentanyl and are additionally “adulterating” or weakening the efficiency of the fentanyl being bought. “Everybody has been caught without warning by the extent of the adulteration of fentanyl,” Felbab-Brown mentioned. “And much more considerably by claims in sure locations within the U.S. that there’s not sufficient fentanyl accessible.”

Researchers usually agree there was an “unprecedented” drop in fentanyl purity in some components of the USA. Labs that take a look at road fentanyl are discovering it lower or watered down much more aggressively, usually with an industrial chemical generally known as BTMPS.

An industrial chemical blended into fentanyl

“We have had samples that had been simply BTMPS and never any fentanyl,” mentioned Nabarun Dasgupta, an habit researcher primarily based in North Carolina who assessments fentanyl samples collected from illicit drug markets across the nation.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, citing public health data, reported in the 2024 drug threat assessment that fentanyl deaths dropped sharply last year, down roughly 20 percent. Many drug policy experts believe that trend has accelerated this year, driven in part by a reduction in the amount and purity of fentanyl reaching Americans who experience opioid addiction.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, citing public well being information, reported within the 2024 drug risk evaluation that fentanyl deaths dropped sharply final 12 months, down roughly 20%. Many drug coverage specialists imagine that pattern has accelerated this 12 months, pushed partly by a discount within the quantity and purity of fentanyl reaching People who expertise opioid habit.

U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration/U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration


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U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration/U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration

Edward Sisco, a analysis chemist on the Nationwide Institute of Requirements and Expertise who helped analyze fentanyl samples, mentioned it is a thriller why drug gangs would use BTMPS in fentanyl mixtures. There isn’t any indication the substance causes customers to get excessive.

“It is generally used to stop UV degradation of plastics, and it has another industrial makes use of as nicely,” Sisco mentioned, including that it seems the chemical is being added to fentanyl powders intentionally early within the provide chain, presumably in drug labs in Mexico.

“When one thing new comes into the drug market, it often is available in one geographical location. It is very uncharacteristic to see [BTMPS] present up all around the nation at one time,” he mentioned.

Whereas BTMPS is taken into account poisonous to people, it would not trigger overdoses or rapid loss of life.

Some drug coverage specialists imagine these shifts within the fentanyl provide are components within the sudden nationwide decline in fentanyl-related deaths, which dropped by roughly 20% final 12 months, in keeping with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.

Dennis Cauchon, a hurt discount activist in Ohio, believes that sample is seen in his state, the place deadly overdoses have fallen even quicker in 2024, down by roughly a 3rd. “For those who take a look at the share of fentanyl in Ohio’s drug provide, you’ll be able to predict what number of deaths there can be,” Cauchon mentioned. “So the actual query is, why has fentanyl declined?”

This query is being fiercely debated by drug coverage and habit specialists.

Are Mexican drug cartels and their Chinese language companions lastly feeling strain?

US Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy Homeland Security Advisor Jen Daskal (C) walks next to Xu Datong, director of China's Narcotic Control Bureau (R) after a launch ceremony of the US-China Counternarcotics Working Group at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on January 30, 2024. (Photo by Ng Han Guan / POOL / AFP) (Photo by NG HAN GUAN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Jen Daskal (heart), a deputy assistant to President Biden on the Nationwide Safety Council who focuses on fentanyl coverage, walks subsequent to Xu Datong (proper), director of China’s Narcotic Management Bureau, after a launch ceremony of the U.S.-China Counternarcotics Working Group in Beijing on Jan. 30.

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Ng Han Guan/Pool/AFP by way of Getty Pictures/AFP

Some analysts imagine worldwide strain on Chinese language corporations that make fentanyl precursor chemical compounds could also be an element. Others assume a world crackdown on Mexican drug cartels that smuggle fentanyl into the U.S. is lastly affecting the black market provide chain.

“There have been almost 70,000 kilos of fentanyl seized alongside the Southwest [U.S.] border within the 24 months ending in August 2024,” mentioned Jen Daskal, a deputy assistant to President Biden on the Nationwide Safety Council who focuses on fentanyl coverage. “That is extra fentanyl seized up to now two fiscal years than within the prior 5 years mixed.”

Seizures are one a part of the technique. The U.S. has additionally steadily ramped up direct strain on the Mexican cartels, making an attempt to seize fentanyl earnings, arresting high Sinaloa leaders and gaining extra cooperation from the Chinese language and Mexican governments.

Daskal acknowledged that drug deaths stay unacceptably excessive within the U.S. however mentioned the Biden administration’s fentanyl technique is exhibiting progress: “We’re seeing the results when it comes to lives saved.”

Final 12 months, the cartels appeared to acknowledge the strain. They issued public guarantees to curb fentanyl manufacturing and smuggling into the USA. The usDrug Enforcement Administration voiced skepticism concerning the gesture, calling it “a public relations stunt.”

However Felbab-Brown at Brookings now believes some type of significant “disruptions to U.S. provide” might have occurred inside Mexico. She says the cartels may additionally hope to scale back legislation enforcement concentrate on their operations by intentionally weakening the efficiency of road fentanyl.

“It might be their resolution on the wholesale provide stage to be adulterating fentanyl to scale back mortality. If that’s the case, that’s nonetheless a big accomplishment by U.S. legislation enforcement, shaping markets and conduct,” she mentioned.

“We have to be actual cautious about being too optimistic”

Not everyone seems to be satisfied the discount in fentanyl provide on America’s streets is significant. Dan Salter leads a federal job pressure concentrating on drug traffickers in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina.

Salter instructed NPR that there was a giant drop-off within the quantity of fentanyl turning up in drug seizures in his a part of the U.S. in 2024. “We have seized virtually 75 kilograms of fentanyl this 12 months to date,” he mentioned. “In 2023, we seized 216 kilograms.”

However in keeping with Salter, that is doubtless a short lived and modest provide disruption that is unlikely to final: “I feel we have to be actual cautious about being too optimistic.”

Rachel Winograd, a drug coverage researcher on the College of Missouri-St. Louis, can be skeptical that disruptions to the fentanyl pipeline are inflicting the drop-off in drug deaths, that are down by 34% in Missouri.

“Drug seizures on the border and elsewhere did actually ramp up in 2023,” she mentioned. “However I don’t assume that has something to do with the lower, not less than not right here in Missouri.”

Winograd thinks different components, together with higher habit therapy and the unfold of the drug overdose reversal medicine naloxone are larger components saving lives.

Consultants agree the U.S. road drug provide stays extremely poisonous and harmful. Substances getting used to adulterate fentanyl, together with BTMPS and xylazine, a horse tranquilizer that is often known as “tranq,” seem to trigger fewer deadly overdoses however are nonetheless dangerous to people. Entrance-line hurt discount staff additionally worry the rising variability in fentanyl purity might put some customers in danger as they attempt to handle their doses.

Haven Wheelock, who works on the road for a company referred to as Exterior In in Portland, Ore., mentioned the sudden shift within the fentanyl provide is inflicting some folks experiencing habit to hunt assist. “Might it’s a motivating issue for folk to do one thing totally different when it comes to in search of therapy? Completely. It might additionally result in extra dangerous behaviors,” she added.

Wheelock warned that some folks in extreme habit might additionally wind up injecting fentanyl, somewhat than smoking it, a observe that’s thought of extra harmful.

Ciccarone, the road drug researcher in San Francisco, believes an general drop in fentanyl availability and purity has slowed overdoses in a significant approach, contributing to a 15% drop in drug deaths in his metropolis to date this 12 months.

“The one factor that might actually clarify this can be a provide shock,” he mentioned. “The fentanyl is drying up.”

Most specialists interviewed by NPR agreed the drop in fentanyl provide is important and widespread however mentioned it should take months of analysis and extra information to verify whether or not the change may have a long-lasting affect.

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